Tag: Prediction

What is an Infodemic and how to report Covid19?

What is an infodemic?

An infodemic is an overabundance of information – some accurate and some not – occurring during an epidemic. It makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it. Even when people have access to high-quality information, there are still barriers they must overcome to take the recommended action. Infodemiology is defined as the science of managing infodemics. The overall aim of this consultation is to take stock of relevant research and effective best practices and define public health research needs in order to advance this field. Reporting data becomes key.  

The coronavirus crisis creates an unparalleled amount of data points. As the nature of the coronavirus is not so different in each country, we can learn a lot through comparisons. There´s no shortage of data and certainly there´s no shortage of brilliant data visualization tools. But just a few offer a seamless onboarding – location agnostic – as only remote organizations can offer. All graphics are based on data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, as published by Our World in Data. 

  • Numbers for confirmed/reported cases are meaningful only in a limited way since most cases have not been confirmed and most confirmed cases have recovered.
  • Data visualizations are done by the amazing team of Flourish and the award-winning data studio to visualize and tell stories with data. 

Data can tell a story – but which story

A picture says more than a thousand words. An animation shows the hidden patterns in a complex challenge like “How to fight a virus?”. Search Listening is the way to research this global challenge. The coronavirus crisis highlights the potential of Data Visualization.

Some countries took early action. Singapore’s government hired experts for preparing for a pandemic already in 2010. The Black Swan 🦢outlines why unlikely events are not unforeseeable and their meaning in Innovation and Crisis Management.

David Bowie Internet Prediction 1999 – An Alien Life form, that´s just landed.

Stop researching like it’s 1999. Adtech can efficiently operate billions of datasets and make decisions in milliseconds. The state of content can be manipulated at the same speed either to cater the material to a specific device form factor or audience. In 2020 we can cater any publishing content to a particular device form factor or audience in real-time.

With more than 100 vertical search engines at your fingertips, massive computing has become available to anyone. It’s the 2020 version of the “Alien Life form, that just landed “… with all credits to David Bowie. This Alien knows all about your dark secrets. As Seth Stephens Davidowitz showed in Everybody Lies, we can learn what people think and what they do by monitoring their behavior. These predictions based on Google Search volume have outperformed any research institute in 2016 and again in 2020.

We are a Search Listening specialist that can help you with expertise and checklists. | Initiate the conversation and schedule your private Demo. 

The Black Swan as a foreseeable market opportunity

White swans are the norm 🦢- Black swans are a foreseeable market opportunity.

When unexpected events cause economies and capital markets to tumble, politicians, economists, and asset managers like to speak of a “black swan.” These animals are scarce and, therefore, also stand for improbable events in economic theory, which throw the familiar out of balance. I took a picture of the two black swans on the photo in Knysna, South Africa 2017, a beautiful place with amazing animals. As we know, these beautiful animals are rare, but they exist – and as we could find out while traveling in South Africa, sometimes you meet more than one of them. 

New York Professor Nassim Taleb used the term in his book “The Black Swan to outline the meaning of this in Innovation, and Crisis Management. The power of highly improbable events”. Nassim Taleb uses a Thanksgiving Turkey to describe why expectations built on historical events can fail dramatically.

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. “On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

The black swan event has killed the turkey – or in a business context, it can stop your competitors´ ability to execute strategy. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Is the Covid19 crisis a black swan event?

The worldwide Covid19 crisis shows us in 2020 how vulnerable our complex globalized social and economic system with its interdependencies is. We realize that the pandemic disrupts global supply chains and little capacity reserves and redundancies in the system.

Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions and might even see an exciting market opportunity. Traditional companies have banned all non-essential travel. Travel companies and companies that depend on in-person meetings are affected.

The pandemic was foreseeable.

In a guest article for the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” (NZZ), he and his co-author Mark Spitznagel explain why the corona crisis should by no means be considered a Black Swan event, “for which being unprepared is excusable.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his co-author Mark Spitznagel explain why the corona crisis should by no means be considered a Black Swan event. On the contrary: The global pandemic is a white swan – an event that will undoubtedly occur in the future. 

A global pandemic will undoubtedly occur in the future. The government of Singapore, which called on us as consultants at the time, had already been preparing for a pandemic since 2010 with a detailed plan.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, NZZ 2020

The Foreseeable Market Opportunity 💥

With change comes opportunity because certain events will damage your competitor’s ability to execute strategy. The challenge is to look out for when these events will occur. The black swan event has killed the Thanksgiving Turkey – and it can stop your competitors’ ability to execute strategy. 

There is always a risk in the business plan, and at the same time, a massive business opportunity. Each shift in spending creates a foreseeable market opportunity. Taleb writes that Singapore took action and already started projects in 2010. The opportunity lies in defining these scenarios and execution models before they occur. Search listening and social listening helps us understand when the time is right – and what we have to do. When the event arrives, you should be ready.

👉  How to find out about the next battlefield, understand its impact, and prepare for it?

👉 How to spot a company worth buying or sell your own company before it´s affected?

👉 Partner with us. CyberSecurity breaches are foreseeable events and opportunities. 

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