The Coronavirus - our black swan 2020
The worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus shows us how vulnerable our complex globalized social and economic system with its interdependencies is. Suddenly we realize that global supply chains are suddenly disrupted, and we painfully note that in the just-in-time logic there are no capacity reserves and redundancies in the system.
The unprecedented lockdown in China is directly impacting global supply chains. Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions, but remain at risk due to cascading economic effects.
Many companies have banned all “non-essential” travel and some have banned all international travel. While travel companies are directly impacted, all companies that depend on in-person meetings to conduct sales, business development, or partnership discussions are being affected.
The coronavirus will keep the world busy for a long time, the exact effects cannot yet be estimated, but for the time after the crisis we should already now make up our minds not to simply go back to business as usual. Some companies have seen their growth rates drop sharply.
White swans are the norm - Black swans are an opportunity
The Black Swan examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have a massive impact. In a business context, the nature of a black swan is that it represents a combination of events that impact the business in a meaningful manner.
Black Swans are significant risks in the business plan, and at the same time, a massive business opportunity for digital businesses prepared to shift their value proposition rapidly.
With change comes opportunity, because black swans damage your competitor's ability to execute strategy.
The Thanksgiving Turkey
Nasim Taleb, The Black Swan author uses the Thanksgiving Turkey to describe what a black swan occurrence is and why expectations built on historical events can fail dramatically.
The black swan event has killed the turkey – or in business terms: it has stopped your competitors´ ability to execute strategy.
A black swan is an opportunity
Our opportunity lies in defining black-swan scenarios and execution models while our competition still focuses his efforts on hunting white swans. When a black swan arrives, we can attack the market. Search listening and social listening will help us understand when the time is right – and we have to do.
We find events in which your competitors lack sufficient information, and pre-design workflows and escalations to prepare yourself for the market opportunity, most of your competitors are missing out.